2024 State-Level Republican Primary Polling

The data in this report comes from surveys conducted Dec. 1, 2022, through Nov. 30, 2023, among more than 300,000 potential Republican primary voters across all 26 states.

Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024. Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they would vote for were asked to pick one they’re leaning toward. Results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”

Unweighted sample sizes of potential Republican primary voters vary for each state, from 181 in Iowa in December 2022 to 3,344 in Florida in July 2023. Unweighted margins of error vary by state, ranging from +/-2 to +/-7 percentage points.

While this report only reflects support for candidates who are still in the race and regularly polling above 5%, Morning Consult has also tracked support at the state level for a much larger list of previously declared or potential candidates including Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Liz Cheney, Will Hurd and Francis Suarez. Unweighted and weighted sample sizes and data on state-level support in each month for every person we have tracked since December 2022 can be found in the methodology section of the report.

Consult our 2024 Republican Primary Methodology Review for additional details on the underlying data sources, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.

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